February 25, 2010
FL-16: Tom Rooney (R) – South central: parts of Martin and Palm Beach counties
Likely Republican. After tawdry sex scandals uncovered by ABC News’s investigative unit engulfed congressmen from this district in both 2006 and 2008, no one’s quite sure if this is a light red district or a red light district. Now on their third representative in the past four years, voters here may be looking not only for ethicality but stability.
In following disgraced former Reps. Mark Foley and Tim Mahoney, the low-key attorney and Pittsburgh Steelers heir Rooney has entered office amid sighs of relief. But his 60 to 40 percent drubbing of Mahoney belies the marginal nature of this district, which extends from portions of Palm Beach County on the Gold Coast to more GOP-friendly areas inland and on the Gulf Coast. McCain topped Obama 52 percent to 47 percent here.
Democrats had high hopes that St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft would be able to make a strong run at Rooney, the freshman who rode into office in 2008 after an explosive personal scandal caused Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney's campaign to implode. Craft is a young, appealing candidate with a good personal story to tell, but in this political environment no Democratic challenger raising less than $50,000 per quarter can hope to compete in a district as Republican and expansive as this one.
Meanwhile, Rooney's brother, Brian, is a candidate to watch against Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer in Michigan
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